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Gary Barnes
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs
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According
to the 2000 U.S. Census, Minnesotans saw their commute times increase
by 3.5 minutes from 1990 to 2000, the same increase seen in the
50-year period from 1940 to 1990. Many explanations for this sudden
jump have been offered: relatively cheap gas prices, population
growth, congestion, and sprawl.
Transportation economist Gary Barnes, however, said that every
theory in this case has a disproving counter-theory. For example,
some counties experienced large increases, while neighboring counties
with similar conditions often saw very minimal increases. Barnes
presented his findings at the Center for Transportation Studies
(CTS) Transportation Research Conference in April; the June issue
of the CTS Report newsletter, available online at www.cts.umn.edu/news/report/2005/06,
has more coverage of the annual conference.
"The whole state shifted up by about three minutes during that
decade," he said, noting that commute times increased in each of
Minnesota's 87 counties. The largest increases weren't in urbanized
counties or the "collar" counties that surround metro areas, but
in non-urban counties.
Barnes, with the Humphrey Institute
of Public Affairs, examined variables that may affect commute
times, such as changes in local land use, the locations of jobs
respective to workers, and population growth. He compared economic
differences among the counties, but didn't find any recent shifts
that would explain statewide increases. Barnes also compared the
10 counties with the smallest increases to the 10 counties with
the largest increases and found that housing prices and wages increased
at the same rate, but that the counties with the fastest population
and job growth saw smaller increases in commute time.
In counties with fewer people working from home, there were large
increases in commute duration, but this one factor alone does not
explain the statewide trend.
Barnes concluded that the reasons for a statewide increase in commute
times were still unknown, especially in the face of rising gas prices.
He speculated that improvements in car reliability and comfort,
the ubiquity of cell phones (making commuters feel safer and more
productive on long commutes), and the ability to search for distant
jobs and housing via the Internet may explain the change.
Reprinted with permission from the July 2005 edition of CTS
Research E-News, a publication of the Center for Transportation
Studies. |
